The Shelf Life of a Paper Book
Predictions about the meteoric rise of E-Books are usually accompanied by dire forecasts that bemoan the demise of print books.
I’ll agree that the world of digital and tablet computing has created a meteoric rise in the number of e-books and readers but is paper really going away?
When radio was introduced, the demise of paper books was predicted.
Guess what? It didn’t nor did television, the internet nor the web.
Instead we now have a greater variety of ways to store, disseminate, and assimilate information with none of the previous methods actually disappearing.
With all of the computers in use in business and other ‘paper dependent areas’, the world had predicted the rise of the paperless office as computers started to proliferate .
And yet, there is 80 times more paper in use today than when that term was coined.
As an engineering major in college, I would have loved to have had all my books on a table computer so I didn’t have to lug around tonnage in the way of paper books but the marked up pages, margin notes, and scribbled revelations made the paper book a thing of value and one to be kept for reference.
What gives?
Why did I mention my old college experiences? Because the type of publication has a lot to do with whether or not an E-Book will be accepted by the end user and totally replace paper books.
The University of California has recognized the value of dual media by supplying new textbooks in both paper and E-Book formats together. This means that the E-Book gets carried to class for ready reference and easy reading while the heavy book stays at home for reference and markup.
Novels, poetry, history, humor, and a number of other categories will undoubtedly enjoy a rise in their transition to the E-book format but I’m skeptical about manuals, How-To-Books, and other types of reading that requires the book to be ‘open and available’.
Phonograph records were replaced by tapes, CDS and now MP3 downloads because of their convenience, quality, efficiency, cost and size and the same can be said of VHS tapes, DVDs and video-on-demand.
Books don’t have quite the same dynamic because for as “old fashioned” as the printed page may be, there are still a lot of people who prefer it to reading from a tablet or a monitor.
Keep an open mind and watch the market. In my self-publishing seminars, I admonish authors to think in terms of dual media to satisfy the needs of the buying public.
In the meantime, here’s an interesting article for you to read and think about.
The Future of Books: A Dystopian Timeline by John Biggs
Reprinted from TechCrunch blog-9/27/11
2013-EBook sales surpass all other book sales, even used books. EMagazines begin cutting into paper magazine sales.
2014-Publishers begin subsidized e-reader trials. Newspapers, magazines, and book publishers will attempt to create hardware lockins for their wares. They will fail.
2015-The death of the Mom and Pops. Smaller book stores will use the real estate to sell coffee and Wi-Fi. Collectable bookstores will still exist in the margins.
2016-Lifestyle magazines as well as most popular Conde Nast titles will go tablet-only.
2018-The last Barnes & Noble store converts to a cafe and digital access point.
2019-B&N and Amazon’s publishing arms – including self-pub – will dwarf all other publishing.
2019-The great culling of the publishers. Smaller houses may survive but not many of them.
The giants like Random House and Penguin will calve their smaller houses into e-only ventures. The last of the “publisher subsidized” tablet devices will falter.
2020-Nearly every middle school to college student will have an e-reader. Textbooks will slowly disappear.
2023-Epaper will make ereaders as thin as a few sheets of paper.
2025-The transition is complete even in most of the developing world. The book is, at best, an artifact and at worst a nuisance.
He predicts: Book collections won’t disappear – hold-outs will exist and a subset of readers will still print books – but generally all publishing will exist digitally.
My opinion: Based on my observations, is that paper is here to stay. For as attractive as e-publishing has become, and I'm sure will remain, there are a LOT of people who still prefer, and will always prefer, to hols a piece of paper in their hands.
I’ll agree that the world of digital and tablet computing has created a meteoric rise in the number of e-books and readers but is paper really going away?
When radio was introduced, the demise of paper books was predicted.
Guess what? It didn’t nor did television, the internet nor the web.
Instead we now have a greater variety of ways to store, disseminate, and assimilate information with none of the previous methods actually disappearing.
With all of the computers in use in business and other ‘paper dependent areas’, the world had predicted the rise of the paperless office as computers started to proliferate .
And yet, there is 80 times more paper in use today than when that term was coined.
As an engineering major in college, I would have loved to have had all my books on a table computer so I didn’t have to lug around tonnage in the way of paper books but the marked up pages, margin notes, and scribbled revelations made the paper book a thing of value and one to be kept for reference.
What gives?
Why did I mention my old college experiences? Because the type of publication has a lot to do with whether or not an E-Book will be accepted by the end user and totally replace paper books.
The University of California has recognized the value of dual media by supplying new textbooks in both paper and E-Book formats together. This means that the E-Book gets carried to class for ready reference and easy reading while the heavy book stays at home for reference and markup.
Novels, poetry, history, humor, and a number of other categories will undoubtedly enjoy a rise in their transition to the E-book format but I’m skeptical about manuals, How-To-Books, and other types of reading that requires the book to be ‘open and available’.
Phonograph records were replaced by tapes, CDS and now MP3 downloads because of their convenience, quality, efficiency, cost and size and the same can be said of VHS tapes, DVDs and video-on-demand.
Books don’t have quite the same dynamic because for as “old fashioned” as the printed page may be, there are still a lot of people who prefer it to reading from a tablet or a monitor.
Keep an open mind and watch the market. In my self-publishing seminars, I admonish authors to think in terms of dual media to satisfy the needs of the buying public.
In the meantime, here’s an interesting article for you to read and think about.
The Future of Books: A Dystopian Timeline by John Biggs
Reprinted from TechCrunch blog-9/27/11
2013-EBook sales surpass all other book sales, even used books. EMagazines begin cutting into paper magazine sales.
2014-Publishers begin subsidized e-reader trials. Newspapers, magazines, and book publishers will attempt to create hardware lockins for their wares. They will fail.
2015-The death of the Mom and Pops. Smaller book stores will use the real estate to sell coffee and Wi-Fi. Collectable bookstores will still exist in the margins.
2016-Lifestyle magazines as well as most popular Conde Nast titles will go tablet-only.
2018-The last Barnes & Noble store converts to a cafe and digital access point.
2019-B&N and Amazon’s publishing arms – including self-pub – will dwarf all other publishing.
2019-The great culling of the publishers. Smaller houses may survive but not many of them.
The giants like Random House and Penguin will calve their smaller houses into e-only ventures. The last of the “publisher subsidized” tablet devices will falter.
2020-Nearly every middle school to college student will have an e-reader. Textbooks will slowly disappear.
2023-Epaper will make ereaders as thin as a few sheets of paper.
2025-The transition is complete even in most of the developing world. The book is, at best, an artifact and at worst a nuisance.
He predicts: Book collections won’t disappear – hold-outs will exist and a subset of readers will still print books – but generally all publishing will exist digitally.
My opinion: Based on my observations, is that paper is here to stay. For as attractive as e-publishing has become, and I'm sure will remain, there are a LOT of people who still prefer, and will always prefer, to hols a piece of paper in their hands.